Equities · Financials

Citigroup

Citigroup is rated Hold with a fair value of $130, a 3.8% upside to the current price of $125.10. The analysis sees three changes already underway lifting returns. The Legacy & Corporate segment, which lost $955m in Q3 while tying up $39bn of capital, is shrinking as Banamex is separated. A $30bn buyback, with about $23bn left, has cut the share count by 7.5% in a year. And Services, Citi’s best business, grew revenue 15% at a 31% return on tangible equity. Near term, the market is treating the seasonal Q3 dip, when return on tangible equity fell to 11.5% from 13.0%, as decline: at 1.23x tangible book, the shares imply an 11.6% return against the 12.6% earned this year. Our 12% base case shows most of that improvement is already priced in, so we would buy below $115, or sooner if Q4 results and 2027 guidance point to the top of the 11–13% range.

Yash Tandon

Equity Analyst

12 Nov 2026

With Arthur Dufournier